A Bleak Recent History of Restricted Free Agency

Plus, a Q&A with Riley Martin a.k.a. SportsBall

Free agency is winding down for the summer. There are useful players still available for teams willing to dip into the bargain bin, but many of the familiar names are off the board. The one major piece of unresolved business is the four Restricted Free Agents (RFAs) who are in a staring contest with their respective teams. Cam Thomas with the Brooklyn Nets, Jonathan Kuminga with the Golden State Warriors, Josh Giddey with the Chicago Bulls, and Quentin Grimes with the Philadelphia 76ers are all attempting to negotiate from a position with no leverage. Bad news for the players, great news for their teams, as they should be able to get these players on +EV deals.

Setting aside whether any of these players is worth splurging on, the crux of the problem is that the only team in the league with functional cap space is the aforementioned Nets and they’re not in a hurry to spend money as evidenced by the fact that they haven’t come to terms with their own RFA. Without any cap space, the most an outside team can offer these RFAs is the Mid-Level Exception, which is worth about $14 million a year. The issue is that all four RFAs see themselves as worth more than $14 million otherwise they wouldn’t be in this predicament in the first place. In an ideal world, these players would seek out an offer sheet from an outside team to put pressure on the home team to meet their demands.

But the thing about offer sheets — the primary mechanism for RFAs to get paid what they think they’re worth — is that they’ve become increasingly rare in recent years. The chart below shows the number of offer sheets issued to RFAs by year, according to data from prosportstransactions.com

Between 2000 and 2020 there were 81 offer sheets issued to RFAs — or about four per year. But since 2020, the league has seen only four offer sheets issued total. The last RFA to get an offer sheet was Paul Reed in 2023.

So where have all the offer sheets gone? I have a few theories.

First, the recent success rate on teams issuing offer sheets isn’t exactly encouraging. Over the last ten years, a little less than 60 percent of offer sheets have been matched by the player’s home team. Meaning, there’s a better chance than not that the offering team is getting their hopes up for nothing. The last team to acquire an RFA via an offer sheet was the Atlanta Hawks in 2020. The Hawks offered Bogdan Bogdanovic a 4-year $72M contract and the Sacramento Kings decided that was too rich for their blood, which led to the Serbian sharpshooter playing in Atlanta for four subsequent seasons before being traded to the Los Angeles Clippers at the trade deadline last year.

The second reason offer sheets have become less common is due to the rules around the tool itself. When an outside team issues an offer sheet, the player’s home team is given 48 hours to decide if they want to match the terms. But during those two days, the offering team has to sit on their hands and act as if that contract is already on their books, which strips them of the ability to chase after other free agents while they wait. A lot of deals are made in the opening hours of free agency so it makes sense teams wouldn’t want to tie up their cap space and limit their optionality when there’s a good chance the home team is just going to match the offer sheet anyway.

The third and final reason why I think offer sheets are disappearing is that cap space has never been less useful for acquiring impact players. Across the league, players are rushing to sign extensions with their current teams, which keeps them under contract longer and limits the pool of impact players that eventually hit free agency. Players are making so much money these days that signing an extension and locking in generational wealth outweighs any chance of making some extra money by waiting until free agency. (And if a player is really hell bent on switching teams, they can always sign an extension and request a trade later, but enough about Devin Booker.) So, from a team’s perspective, it doesn’t make sense to prioritize cap space if there’s no one worth spending it on. That reduces the number of suitors for free agents, which in turn reduces the number of offer sheets overall.

Add all those components up and it seem as though restricted free agency has never been more restrictive. To even the scales a bit, let’s engage in a bit of motivated reasoning. Here’s a stat for each RFA that I think their agents should use during contract negotiations with their respective teams.

Cam Thomas Doesn’t Need Space

I used to know a guy in graduate school who swore to me that if you put the right kind of ketchup on the right kind of cracker it sort of tastes like shrimp. That’s my way of saying that if you catch Cam Thomas on the right night against the right opponent he sort of looks like a star.

Last season, Thomas shot 35 percent on threes with defenders draped all over him. The only players that took threes with less room between them and the closest defender were James Harden and Brandon Ingram. How closely the defense guards a shooter is almost as important as how often the shot goes in. Because even when Thomas isn’t making shots, the defense still treats him as if he is, which opens the floor for everyone else on his team.

Jonathan Kuminga Will Force You To Foul Him

I can understand why the Warriors can’t quit Jonathan Kuminga. He’s their best shot at fulfilling their Two Timelines goal. But right now the idea of him is better than the reality. However, there are some promising signs that those two could converge in the near future.

Last year, Kuminga drew a shooting foul on nearly 16 percent of his direct drives. The only players that drew shooting fouls at a higher rate on drives were Paolo Banchero and Karl-Anthony Towns. The ability to consistently get to the free throw line for easy points is a useful tool to have while he works out the kinks in the rest of his offensive game.

Josh Giddey: Threes For Thee But Not Me

Those who can’t shoot — pass. That’s the mantra for Josh Giddey who hasn’t let his lack of a three-point shot stop him from creating quality threes for his teammates. He has the size and ball handling to get into the paint and the vision to hit the open man on the perimeter. That shows up in this teammates’ three-point accuracy off of his passes.

Last season, Giddey’s teammates made just under 39 percent of their threes when they came off a pass from Giddey. That ranked 9th among qualifying passers. As long as the ball is in Giddey’s hands, he’ll find a way to put his imprint on the game.

Quentin Grimes Is The Destroyer Of Closeouts

The difficult part about evaluating Quentin Grimes’ situation is that nearly everything he showcased last year in Philadelphia isn’t what he’s going to be asked to do next year. With a healthy Joel Embiid, Paul George, and Tyrese Maxey, Grimes should slide down the 76ers’ pecking order and into a more complementary role. But here’s one aspect of his game last year that should translate regardless of his role in next year’s offense:

Last season, Grimes ranked 7th in points scored per direct closeout among qualifying players. Grimes’ quick trigger finger and first step make him a nightmare for opposing defenders trying to decide how to closeout to him. Closeout long to take away his three and he’s blowing right past the defense for a dunk¹ or a dump-off. Closeout short to contain the drive and he’s letting it fly. Last year was his most efficient season attacking closeouts, but longtime Grimes fans know this is a skill he’s had dating back to his days with the New York Knicks.

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A Refreshing Q&A With Riley Martin a.k.a. SportsBall

As AI continues to eat the world, I have found myself drawn to content clearly created by other humans. Seeing someone literally use their hands has never been more satisfying at a time when so much else it built on top of ChatGPT output. That’s why I love what Riley Martin is doing right now.

Martin runs the account SportsBall on Instagram and TikTok where he publishes hand-drawn data-driven illustrations of sports-related content. Martin’s videos are educational in nature, but it’s the way in which he guides the viewer through niche topics and experimental data visualizations that keep me coming back for more.

I emailed back and forth with Martin about starting SportsBall, why people love hand drawn data visualizations, and what he does with all those loose pieces of graph paper.

This Q&A has been lightly edited for length and clarity

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F5: I think your content resonates with a lot of people because it takes the viewer on a journey. You're drawing charts, but you're really telling a story and the viewer gets to engage with the data in a way that's different than if you had just posted the finished graph and put up a caption. There's something about holding the viewer’s hand as you take them on a tour through the data that works really well in video format. I think that’s why your account blew up, but what do you think?

RM: I agree, and I think three things make it work:

First is accessibility. This whole thing started with me trying to explain sports to my wife Claire, who’s a pretty casual fan. That meant simplifying everything, and not skipping any steps. If you watch closely, I always describe the axes, point out which line is which, and don’t assume the viewer knows how to read a chart. A lot of data folks expect everyone to follow their logic, but that’s not how most people process information. On social media especially, if it takes more than two seconds to figure out what’s going on, people scroll. You can’t lose them like that so we are very deliberate about holding the viewer's hand and guiding them to the topic.

Second is sequencing. Even though it looks rough around the edges, every video is timed so the drawing and the voice land together. It seems like that timing helps your brain process things more smoothly, and it keeps people watching longer without even realizing why. It’s one of the few places where being extremely precise actually helps simplify the message.

Third is the human feel. Everyone’s scribbled something on paper before, and most people would rather watch a person work than stare at another clean, digital slide. People like seeing real hands, real handwriting, and real voices. My voice might sound like I smoke a pack a day, but at least it's authentic. I mess up drawings sometimes, but that’s fine, because so does everyone else. The whole thing just feels more personal and more real and I think people like that.

How did you come up with the idea of hand drawing everything on graph paper?

It came out of necessity. Before going hand-drawn, I was trying to make these odd digital hybrid videos with charts, narration, and animations, but they took forever to make and didn’t look great. You can still find them if you scroll back far enough. When the Olympics came around, I wanted to post every day, but I didn’t have the skills or time to build polished visuals that fast. I still knew what I wanted to say, so I just started sketching a "dashboard" on graph paper and voicing over the story. That first one got way more traction than anything I had done before, so I kept going. I wasn’t trying to become a polished motion designer; I just wanted to tell the story in the clearest and fastest way possible.

What were you doing before starting SportsBall?

When I started SportsBall, I was working at a financial company in the alternative assets space. I was on the research team where we built derived data products, and my role was to visualize them and pull out insights. Before that, I was in technical consulting, and before that, I studied industrial engineering at Cal Poly San Luis Obispo. In every phase of my career, I was always messing around with data storytelling—whether it was part of my job or just something I enjoyed doing on the side.

At what point did you realize, “I've got something here.”

During last year’s Olympics, the page took off in a big way. I figured if I wanted to reach casual sports fans, the Olympics was the best time to do it, and that idea worked better than I expected. After posting five or six explainer videos, we went from 500 followers on Instagram to 50,000 in about two weeks. That gave me the confidence that this was real, and when people I respected in the industry started reaching out, it felt even more legitimate. I didn’t take some dramatic leap or quit my job overnight. I waited until the page was earning about the same as my full-time job, and once that happened, I just leaned in further and made it official.

You cover A LOT of topics. You post about basketball, baseball, hockey, but you're also doing stuff on horse racing, Jeopardy, competitive eating, and more. How do you come up with your ideas and what gives you the confidence to dip your toes into subjects that might not be your in natural wheelhouse?

The ideas usually come from whatever I’m watching or thinking about in the moment. If I hear something interesting from an announcer or see a stat that makes me curious, I write it down and dig into it later.

My general rule is this: if I’m watching a sport and I don’t understand something, there are probably millions of other people who don’t either. That’s a good sign that it’s worth explaining. Take the Tour de France, for example. I had no clue how it actually worked, and I figured a lot of people felt the same way. So I started asking the questions I had and built a story from the answers.

Same thing happened with one of my favorite videos, void years in the NFL. I heard an announcer say the Eagles were using them to build their roster. I didn’t know what that meant, so I went and figured it out. Then I turned it into a story.

I think of myself as a generalist sports fan. I don’t pretend to be an expert in everything, but if I’m curious about something and I can learn it, I trust that others will be interested too. And that’s usually enough to build something people will connect with.

You regularly work with leagues like the NBA, NHL, and others to tell stories with their data. Forgive me for asking what might be a dumb question, but what do they get out of it? Why do they want to work with you?

As for why, there are a couple of reasons I feel pretty confident about. First, my content is safe for them. I’m not out here throwing hot takes or strong opinions. I’m telling simple, data-driven stories, often using the league’s own published data. From their perspective, there’s very little risk in working with us, especially compared to other creators who grow by having a loud POV, attitude, or some kind of edge.

The second reason is that I think a lot of leagues struggle with content variety. A league is really just the sum of its teams, teams that run their own content, build their own followings, and develop their own vibe. Because of that, the league itself often takes a backseat when it comes to original content not associated with those players or teams. They usually stick to broad highlights or generic player clips. One lane I assume they’re eager to explore more is education as it’s team-agnostic and actually a powerful lever, because leagues want to control the narrative around how their sport works, and that’s something we’re good at.

You've built up a large enough following across Instagram and TikTok that it seems from the outside that you're not as dependent on The Algorithm for eyeballs. Does it feel that way for you? Or do you feel like what's going to pop off is still random.

My take is that the algorithm still plays a huge role in growth on both platforms, and I try to make sure every piece of content is at least viable enough to catch a hot streak if the timing’s right. I have a pretty good sense of what baseline engagement looks like on any given post, though less so on TikTok, but I still try to challenge myself to reach people who are seeing the content for the first time. I don't feel comfortable at all relying on just the follower base for engagement, especially as the follower metric seems to be constantly deprioritized by platforms.

Who do you look for feedback on your work? Do you have someone that you share stuff with before it goes live?

I always share it with my wife Claire. My number one goal is to make sports entertaining and accessible to people who aren’t die-hard fans, so I use her as a gut check since she’s a pretty good stand-in for that audience. If it’s boring or too complex, we tweak things, maybe add a better analogy or rework the framing, and try again.

Do you have any data visualization hot takes or pet peeves? Maybe it's a chart type you think is overrated/underrated or a rule that you think is outdated. Take this in whatever direction you want.

I’m taking this in the direction of underutilized aspects of data visualization, specifically sequencing and annotations. One chart can hold a ton of information, but it can feel lazy in a data story to just toss it out to the world and expect the viewer to interpret everything on their own. By splitting a chart into three or four frames, you can guide attention and lead people to insights in a way that’s way more accessible and engaging. Narrow the audience's focus for them.

I think a lot of people that work in data visualization got started because there was a particular person that made them go, Wow I want to do that. Is that true for you? If so, who were those people?

Gosh, there are some incredible people out there that I really revere. Nathan Yau, for sure, and a lot of the “Vox mafia” like Johnny Harris, Cleo Abram, and Sam Ellis, who all do amazing video storytelling with data woven in on YouTube. Where I really got my start was doing a bunch of Tableau challenges and being active in that community. Within that world, CJ Mayes was an icon. He was constantly creating new types of visualizations and truly pushing the boundaries of what could be imagined in Tableau. I always looked up to him, and still do.

For static stuff, I’ve always admired Kirk Goldsberry, Todd Whitehead, and yourself in the basketball space. And in hockey, Dom Luszczyszyn and Shayna Goldman at The Athletic are my favorites.

Fivethirtyeight used to run a feature called Damn, We Wish We’d Done These Stories. So, I ask you, what’s one visualization/chart you’ve seen recently that made you go, Damn, I Wish I’d Done That.

You know, I was actually planning to do a piece on the equilibrium between 2-point and 3-point shots in the NBA, based on points per shot, since they’ve started to converge to almost perfect parity. Just this week though, I saw a few people like Lev and MacKelvie posting about it, so I might’ve missed the window on that one. One of my favorite static charts, though, is Todd Whitehead’s stacked area chart on the value of different NBA draft picks. I always come back to it, it’s such a simple, clean visualization that perfectly shows how important those top picks really are.

What do you do with the pieces of graph paper that you draw on after you're done with a post?

They’re mostly just laying around the house. I scan all of them and sell prints in case anyone wants them for any reason, but the originals tend to float around, much to Claire’s chagrin. If it’s a client project, I’ll usually send them the original to hang in their office or keep on display, so they’ve ended up in a bunch of different places. My favorite story is one we did on horse breeding, focused on one horse that’s considered the top sire in the world. The farm that owns him saw the video, and I sent them the original drawing. From what I hear, it’s now hanging up next to the horse in his barn.

Where does SportsBall go from here? Do you see yourself sticking to sports? Or could you see yourself branching out into other topics?

I’ve done some commission pieces in other industries, and they can be really fun. I’m a curious person by nature, so I love learning about someone’s business and figuring out how to weave a data story around it. I don’t see myself starting a whole new page dedicated to finance, energy, or any other industry right now,but who knows. Beyond that, no huge plans at the moment. We’re about a year into this whole thing, so I’m still getting my footing, meeting people, and getting more familiar with the space.

I ask everyone what's one thing they can't live without during the NBA season. But I know you’re a hockey fan at heart. So what’s one thing you can’t live without during the NHL season?

There’s an account called HockeyStatsCards that publishes derived performance metrics for every player after every game. They create these scorecards that make it easy to see who played well and who struggled across the entire league, and they’ve become a critical tool for me to keep up with the season.

1. My favorite fun fact about Grimes is that he was the runner-up to Zion Williamson in the 2018 High School All-American Dunk Contest.