Double Big Lineups: Big Gimmick Or Too Big To Fail?

Plus, an open letter to Tari Eason's Representation

Welcome back to another edition of The F5. I hope you enjoyed Take Week, but we’re all out of spice and back to chart talk. Here’s what’s going on this week:

• First, I look at the rise of double big lineups. Are they a big gimmick or are they too big too fail?

• Then, friend of The F5, sports_mediocre pens a letter to Tari Eason’s representation. Tari, have your people get in touch with my people.

• Elsewhere, I went on the Nothing But Respect podcast to talk basketball. Give it a listen, leave a review, and tell them I sent you so that I get invited back.

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Two Big Too Fail

Lost in the drama of Luka Doncic’s emotional return to Dallas last night was that it was just the second game in which all three of the Mavericks Centers were available at the same time. The Mavericks started the game with Anthony Davis playing next to Dereck Lively II. Meanwhile, Daniel Gafford came off the bench.

The Mavericks lost by 15, but there were moments when their Double Big lineups appeared to make things difficult on the smaller Lakers. Like at the start of the fourth quarter, when the Mavericks ripped off a 8-0 run to briefly take the lead.

You never want to put too much stock in single-game plus-minus, but the Mavericks were only -4 with two of their Centers on the court. Meanwhile, they were -11 with only one Center on the court. I wouldn’t say that validates Nico Harrison’s reasons for trading for Anthony Davis — far from it. But I’d be lying if I said the double big lineup minutes didn’t intrigue me.

Double big lineups are something I’ve noticed popping all around the league this season. You can find examples everywhere you look — especially at the top of the standings.

In Cleveland, the Cavaliers rode Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen to the Eastern Conference’s best record. Out West, the Oklahoma City Thunder accomplished a similar feat by starting Chet Holmgren next to Isaiah Hartenstein.

Down in Houston, Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams have been beating opponents to a pulp while inhaling one million offensive rebounds per game. That’s propelled them to the second seed in the West where they’ll have home court advantage in the first two rounds of the playoffs.

When the Celtics and Knicks faced off earlier this week, Kristaps Porzingis and Luke Kornet frequently shared the court together. Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, the Knicks seemed comfortable playing Karl-Anthony Towns next to Mitchell Robinson.

Those are just some of the more high profile double big combos. But there are others, too.

The table below shows the Net Ratings of some of the most commonly used double big combos this season. For this exercise, I’ve classified Giannis Antetokounmpo and Al Horford as Centers.

The teams that have had success with double big lineups are headed to the postseason. The others weren’t really trying to get there anyway.

This season, the average lineup featuring two Centers is outscoring opponents by +4.2 points per 100 possessions. Meanwhile, the average lineup without any Centers is getting outscored by -1.4 points per 100 possessions. Putting two Centers on the court has effectively been a cheat code for winning.

Granted, the sample sizes are small(ish) relative to the more traditional single Center lineups. Teams have played two Centers together for about 10,500 minutes this season. Meanwhile, there’s been almost 90,000 minutes of single Center lineups. So it’s plausible that the +4.2 number could shrink toward zero as the total number of minutes increases.

But lets consider for a moment that maybe this isn’t just a statistical fluke. Maybe there’s something more here.

When the Warriors broke basketball ten years ago with their Lineup of Death it sent the league into a tizzy. Everyone rushed to downsize their lineups to keep up with the speed and shooting of the Warriors. This accelerated the so-called Small Ball revolution and extended the careers of players like Jeff Green and PJ Tucker who were rebranded as Small Ball Fives.

But Small Ball has always been a misnomer. It should have been called Skill Ball.

Draymond at Center allowed the Warriors to put their five most-skilled players on the court. It just so happened that Draymond was smaller than most other Centers.

Basketball is fundamentally still a sport where the tallest players have a natural advantage over the shorter ones. So if a player’s skill can catch up to their height then playing two bigs together can create problems for the other team and advantages for yours.

What we’re seeing now is the rise of skilled bigs who can do more than just rebound, catch a lob, and block a shot. Now, many bigs can pass on the move, switch on defense, put the ball on the floor, and even shoot off the dribble.

And when you have two of them, you can do all of that AND punk your opponents on the offensive glass and take away the rim on defense. It gives teams the best of both worlds without having to compromise too much on spacing or playmaking.

We know double big lineups work in the regular season. But do they work in playoffs? Thankfully, we don’t have to wait long to find out because the postseason starts next week.

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An Open Letter To Tari Eason’s Representation

—by sports_mediocre

Tari Eason is good now and he’s rapidly getting better every day.

Dear Wasserman Group,

You are entering a contract negotiation this summer for one of the most underrated players in the NBA. Here are three facts I hope you use as leverage:

FACT 1:

For Tari Eason’s career, his team plays 6.4 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court than with him off the court. Here is a list of players who will have three or more first-team all-NBA selections after this season with smaller On-Off impacts for their career:

• KD

• SGA

• Harden

• Luka

• AD

Eason might not have the scoring or attention of these stars, but organizations are willing to pay to win, and his impact on winning is at star level.

There are reasons to be skeptical of On-Off metrics. Sometimes, players will have great On-Off numbers simply by playing most of their minutes alongside another great player. Think Jamal Murray alongside Nikola Jokic. Think Klay Thompson alongside Steph Curry. Neither Jamal nor Klay were ever leading their team in these metrics, but in isolation, they look great. That’s not the case with Eason. Here are his team ranks among all players who played at least as many minutes as him in each season:

• ‘23: 1st in On-Court Net Rating/1st in On-Off rating (out of 6)

• ‘24: 1st/1st (out of 12)

• ‘25: 3rd/3rd (out of 7, and he trails the team leader in On-Court Net Rating by 0.3)

Eason simply plays winning basketball.

FACT 2:

The list of players who have a steal and block rate above 2.5 percent, an offensive rebounding rate above 10 percent, and more than 100 made threes in their first three seasons is a list of one:

• Tari Eason

If we get rid of the offensive rebounding rate requirement, here’s the list:

• Draymond Green

• Andrei Kirilenko

• Matisse Thybulle

• Tari Eason

Eason walks, talks, and quacks like an all-defensive player, and he works the glass better than any of his contemporaries. That defensive impact helped the Rockets move into the top ten in defense last season, and the top five this season. Unfortunately, the Rockets still struggle offensively, but that’s where Eason is just starting to shine.

FACT 3:

In Eason’s first two seasons, he was an inefficient scorer, arguably his lone weakness. This season, he has a career high 2P%, eFG%, FT%, TS%, and is now within one percent of league average efficiency.

You may be looking at the contract extensions of Sengun and Green and think there might not be enough room left for Eason. Trust me, there are front offices around the league who would pay for someone with his consistent impact on winning, his scrappiness, his improvement in his first three seasons, and most importantly, his ability to impact the game without needing the ball. Teams like OKC with Alex Caruso, Isaiah Hartenstein, or Boston with Jrue Holiday and Derrick White, have found had success surrounding ball dominant winning players with off-ball winning players such that the sum is greater than the parts.

There are plenty of overpaid negative impact players in the league. Eason’s teammate Jalen Green is a prime example. Zach LaVine is another. Meanwhile, it took eight seasons for an impact player like Derrick White to crack $20M/year.

Don’t let Tari Eason be the next underpaid winner.

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