Why not add a variable like shooting efficiency or team overperformance (measured as the difference between actual win percentage and preseason vegas projection)? The latter would account for e.g. Chris Paul's 7th place finish last year and Steph's win in 2014-15. Are you worried about overfitting or just trying not to overthink it?
Its a great question. I think for this post I just wanted to try and re-create Bref's MVP Tracker as closely possible (but w/ projected win % instead of current wins). I may add some additional controls later on, but yeah, the general idea was to try not and overthink it.
I've done a little bit of analysis on this subject, specifically for voter fatigue, and my results were that voter fatigue doesn't exist on the whole. That could be an interesting topic for you to look at later.
My main problem with the trade (besides overall undervaluing Harden) is that it essentially says that the difference between Harden and Siakam is the same as between the Wolves and Nuggets picks
I've seen people go mad trying to defend their fake trades, so I'll try not do that here. Maybe the pick that goes to Toronto (via Den) goes to Houston instead. Either way, the trade is less about the picks and more in exercise in trying to maximize the fits for each team.
I like the reasoning behind it, just that imo Harden is worth more. I think that Golden State would have to give up more future picks if they did this and that could be solved tho
Why not add a variable like shooting efficiency or team overperformance (measured as the difference between actual win percentage and preseason vegas projection)? The latter would account for e.g. Chris Paul's 7th place finish last year and Steph's win in 2014-15. Are you worried about overfitting or just trying not to overthink it?
Its a great question. I think for this post I just wanted to try and re-create Bref's MVP Tracker as closely possible (but w/ projected win % instead of current wins). I may add some additional controls later on, but yeah, the general idea was to try not and overthink it.
I've done a little bit of analysis on this subject, specifically for voter fatigue, and my results were that voter fatigue doesn't exist on the whole. That could be an interesting topic for you to look at later.
Would love to read it if its published anywhere! Id be interested to see if voter fatigue impacts vote share or likelihood of winning the award
It is currently not published but I'll look into getting it up somewhere.
My main problem with the trade (besides overall undervaluing Harden) is that it essentially says that the difference between Harden and Siakam is the same as between the Wolves and Nuggets picks
I've seen people go mad trying to defend their fake trades, so I'll try not do that here. Maybe the pick that goes to Toronto (via Den) goes to Houston instead. Either way, the trade is less about the picks and more in exercise in trying to maximize the fits for each team.
I like the reasoning behind it, just that imo Harden is worth more. I think that Golden State would have to give up more future picks if they did this and that could be solved tho