Great piece Owen. Totally agree with your conclusions. The fastest way to be overrated is to once have been good and for your skills to have eroded. And the fastest way to be overrated is to play on a great team with superstar players.
I think one of the other main biases that show through in your analysis above is that fans are often biased with respect to three things when assessing player value:
1) People value +2 per 36 from a start much more than +2 per 36 from a bench player, irrespective of actual minutes and/or usage;
2) People value +2 per 36 of offensive value more highly than +2 of defensive value; and
3) People value players that play faster/more aggressively more highly than players that play slow/passively, irrespective of skill/value
The latter two points are common to all sports; offensive ability is just easier to process when watching the game and is ultimately more engaging and exciting to watch for all but the purists.
This very much applies to a lot of the names you picked out in your analysis. Booker and Herro are always going to catch the eye as points, and especially threes, are the leveraged/exciting plays for a fan. On the other side of it people just aren't really looking for players boxing out and rotating efficiently on defence.
The former I find really interesting - and as such great bench players that still plays 20-25+ minutes are some of my favourite players to follow. This year’s specially I’ve loved following (and reading about) the great progress Cameron Payne has made in Phoenix and how he’s become a really valuable asset by fitting his game exactly to both his skills and the needs the team around him.
Over a long-term body of work, in addition to Conley, I’d say Nikola Vucevic is someone that always comes to mind for me as underrated or certainly underappreciated, despite him now being in the All Star mix in recent years.
The last couple of years Jonas Valanciunas and Delon Wright are two players that spring to mind for me.
Again, really great article and please do keep this sort of thought-provoking stuff coming. It’s great to have it in a longer format outside of the twitter hot takes (not yours) and have more of a chance to sit down with a cup of coffee and engage more fully here in the comments.
Great piece Owen. Totally agree with your conclusions. The fastest way to be overrated is to once have been good and for your skills to have eroded. And the fastest way to be overrated is to play on a great team with superstar players.
I think one of the other main biases that show through in your analysis above is that fans are often biased with respect to three things when assessing player value:
1) People value +2 per 36 from a start much more than +2 per 36 from a bench player, irrespective of actual minutes and/or usage;
2) People value +2 per 36 of offensive value more highly than +2 of defensive value; and
3) People value players that play faster/more aggressively more highly than players that play slow/passively, irrespective of skill/value
The latter two points are common to all sports; offensive ability is just easier to process when watching the game and is ultimately more engaging and exciting to watch for all but the purists.
This very much applies to a lot of the names you picked out in your analysis. Booker and Herro are always going to catch the eye as points, and especially threes, are the leveraged/exciting plays for a fan. On the other side of it people just aren't really looking for players boxing out and rotating efficiently on defence.
The former I find really interesting - and as such great bench players that still plays 20-25+ minutes are some of my favourite players to follow. This year’s specially I’ve loved following (and reading about) the great progress Cameron Payne has made in Phoenix and how he’s become a really valuable asset by fitting his game exactly to both his skills and the needs the team around him.
Over a long-term body of work, in addition to Conley, I’d say Nikola Vucevic is someone that always comes to mind for me as underrated or certainly underappreciated, despite him now being in the All Star mix in recent years.
The last couple of years Jonas Valanciunas and Delon Wright are two players that spring to mind for me.
Again, really great article and please do keep this sort of thought-provoking stuff coming. It’s great to have it in a longer format outside of the twitter hot takes (not yours) and have more of a chance to sit down with a cup of coffee and engage more fully here in the comments.
Cheers
JB